The past is over. The future is not yet. The exact nature of the unfolding future is basically unknowable to traders and investors. Probabilities are all we have. Unfortunately, too many long for certainty in an uncertain game.
Probabilities are enough. We don’t get anything more. Probabilities are more than possibilities. They are likely to occur. Hopefully, we’ve put the probabilities in our favor. We know the wildness lies in wait. We calculate the risk before we take the trade, and we make peace with the possibility of loss. We accept the risk, and turn it over to the market to do whatever it’s going to do. We accept the uncertainty. There is no other way.
Then where is our certainty? It lies in trusting the probabilities to work over time. We know our research is solidly based. We also know that past research never guaranties future outcomes. Nevertheless, in controlling the risk, we assure future viability.
The real certainty comes in trusting ourselves to do the right thing in the right way right on time. We’ve trained ourselves strategically, mentally, and emotionally. We rejoice in curiosity. We delight in the excitement of the unknowable.
Like all champions, we have what William James called precursive faith; i.e., faith that runs ahead of the actual event. No matter what happens, we keep ourselves on track by asking the ubiquitously useful question: what is the right thing to do now? We rise above the need to know the final outcome. Now is the point of power. What is the market telling us? What is the best thing to do right now?
All we can do is all we can do, and all we can do is enough. We stand comfortably on that knowledge.